Bitcoin Cycle Models: S2F Says Extremely Undervalued, Rainbow Says Fire Sale

Bitcoin is 47% below its all-time high. The Fear and Greed Index is at 9. Every macro trader is asking the same question: where are we in the cycle?

Buildix just launched a Cycle Models dashboard at buildix.trade/cycles that puts all the major Bitcoin valuation models in one place. Here is what they currently say.

The Stock-to-Flow model puts Bitcoin's model price at over $1.5 million with a 96% negative deviation. The S2F model has been widely criticized since 2022 for overestimating price, and this level of deviation confirms that. Take it with a massive grain of salt, but the directional signal (undervalued relative to scarcity) is still worth noting.

The Rainbow Chart band currently reads "Fire Sale" with a price ratio of 0.06x of the logarithmic regression center. This is the lowest band on the rainbow and historically has only appeared during the deepest bear market bottoms.

MVRV Ratio sits at 1.18, which indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is barely in profit. Values below 1 historically mark capitulation bottoms. We are getting close.

Puell Multiple is at 0.964, sitting in the "Fair" zone but trending toward the capitulation zone below 0.5 that has historically marked the best buying opportunities.

We are 49% through the current halving cycle (718 days since the April 2024 halving, roughly 730 days until the next one around early 2028). Historically, the first 40-60% of a halving cycle is accumulation, and the final 30-40% is where the explosive move happens.

None of these models are predictions. They are historical pattern-matching tools and Bitcoin has deviated from all of them at various points. But when multiple independent models all converge on "undervalued" at the same time, that is data worth paying attention to. Combine this with live orderflow data on Buildix to see if the accumulation is actually happening in real time.