HIP-4 vs Polymarket — Mispricing

Equivalent prediction markets, two venues, one table: Hyperliquid HIP-4 implied probability (YES-book mid) against the Polymarket CLOB mid, with spread, liquidity and per-source freshness. Conservative curated matching — few right pairs over many wrong ones.

DISCLAIMER: A cross-venue spread is not an executable arbitrage. Fees, slippage, thin books, different settlement mechanics and different resolution oracles can each exceed the displayed spread. Suggested matches are fuzzy pairings — verify the two markets resolve on the same terms before acting. Analytics only, not financial advice.
loading…
PairMatchSpreadSourcesExp
Loading…
HIP-4 vs Polymarket mispricing
⚡ Live cross-venue spreads, liquidity and 24h history per matched pair
Sign up free — 24h demo · No credit card
Sign Up Free
Matching is deliberately conservative: pairs come from a curated mapping (plus curated rules for recurring families like the daily BTC price ranges), cross-checked on strike numbers and expiry. Fuzzy title matches are only ever shown as SUGGESTED and are hidden by default. HIP-4 implied probability is the YES-book mid of the leading outcome (5-min snapshots); Polymarket probability is the CLOB YES mid mirrored every 5 minutes. A missing source marks the row instead of inventing a number.